The AL West ended 2011 with a boom by becoming arguably the most competitive division between the two top teams. With the Angels new television deal Arte Moreno finally opened his pocket book and signed not only the best free agent hitter in Albert Pujols but also the best free agent pitcher in C.J. Wilson. The Rangers tried to counter back by signing pitcher Yu Darvish away from the Japanese leagues. The division as a hole is now vastly divided between the haves and the have nots. The Athletics wheeled and dealed away seemingly all of their talent to once again, go younger. But surprised a lot of people by signing Manny Ramirez and coming to turns with Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes. The Mariners traded pitcher Michael Pineda away for top Yankee prospect Jesus Montero. Lets take a look at this on a per team level.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Why is this team going to win this division? Well, when you have the best four man rotation in the league and the best hitter you are going to be favored. There are still a lot of ifs with this team before we can declare them the division winner. First off, what can we expect out of Kendrys Morales? So far this Spring he has stayed healthy, playing good ball and should make some contribution to the team as the DH. Secondly, can Howie Kendrick repeat and go above last year’s production levels to move into one of the top second baseman in the game? Certainly hitting in front of Albert Pujols doesn’t hurt. Next, what do you get out of an aging Torii Hunter? As his age is zapping his production on offense the Angels need to start moving onto the next thing, Mike Trout the Angels and MLB’s best prospect. Can he contribute like Mark Trumbo did last year? Which brings me to the next question, where does Trumbo play? Where does Callaspo play, 3B full time all year? Does Vernon Wells repeat last year’s down season or does he return to his productive levels of his Blue Jays days. Phew, a lot of question marks and we aren’t even on the pitching staff. This bullpen isn’t strong and this could be a concern for the Angels heading into 2012. Jordan Walden had shown signs of regression, though he is still money. Can Weaver repeat last year?
My idea of what happens this year, Howie Kendrick hits .295 w/23 home runs, 79 RBI’s and 19 stolen bases. Albert Pujols has another Pujols season in which he hits .321 w/41 home runs, 121 RBI’s with 9 stolen bases. I see Kendrys Morales also hitting in the upper twenty’s lower 30’s in home run potential with a .300 average. Jered Weaver will win 18 games, Haren will win 16 games, CJ Wilson will win 21 games and finally Ervin Santana will win 15. This team will win the division but by a lot closer margin than thought.
101 - 61
Texas Rangers
They made it to the world series the last two years, but fell short both times. The Rangers this year feature a much different rotation without C.J. Wilson and in his place another phenom from Japan in Yu Darvish. As expected the Rangers return much of the same team that has cemented them atop the AL West the last two years, as expected that same roster still contains many concerns. Can Josh Hamilton play 145 games this year? He has only met that number once. Arguably when Hamilton is healthy he produces 35 home runs with a very healthy batting average. The key is to keep him as healthy as can be for a former substance abuse user. Can Nelson Cruz stay healthy? The other oft-injured outfielder, Nelson Cruz plays such an important part in this team’s offensive plans that he needs to play in at least 120 games which he has only managed to do in two of his 7 seasons of big league ball. Will Mike Napoli regress back to his norms or is this batting average for real? Will Yu Darvish be a true ace or will he go the way of Dice-K?
Hamilton, Beltre, Kinsler, Napoli, Cruz all his an average of 30 home runs. This team outpaces the Yankees for most pop in the line up. Hamilton and Cruz both manage to get in at least 130 games. Napoli not only stays hot, he increases his rbi potential to 85. The pitching rotation will be very up and down. Colby Lewis will be a steady pitcher putting up 14 wins. Yu Darvish will be amazing for the first 3 months of the year then regress as the summer heats up in Arlington. I think Feliz will be the savior of this rotation. I don’t see him sticking around come September but through the summer months I see him being steady eddy. With Ogando in the bullpen and Joe Nathan set to close this bullpen will be used a lot. I see the Rangers making the wild card format and making a knock on the door of November again.
97-65
Oakland Athletics
This division gets bad fast. The Oakland A’s as stated above traded away talent to go young again. As a much-needed relocation to San Jose is stalling, the Athletics don’t have the kind of money to spend like the Rangers and Angels. I see the Athletics having some bright spots to watch, the always-funny Tweeter Brandon McCarthy helms the “ace” roll of the team. Yoenis Cespedes should be fun to watch simply because of his name and hype. Always polarizing character Manny Ramirez should make his MLB debut some time at the end of May and will either fade into the mystic or have one last hurrah. The Athletics will lose but at least some interesting characters to watch while losing.
73-89
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners as a squad can’t produce any more than a woman on birth control. They have some interesting pieces this year however, starting with Jesus Montero. He is major league ready and will be the every day DH for this squad. What to expect from Montero? I’d say anywhere in the likely hood of 28-32 home runs. No longer is Ichiro at lead off as he has finally moved down to 3rd in the pecking order. Can the Smoak monster do anything this year? I don’t think so. I think Smoak is a AAAA player and that is his peak. The Mariners have one played who is due in Dustin Ackley. I really see him being a solid contact hitter with 15-20 home run potential. The Mariners don’t have that many other pieces that really will do much. On the pitching side of things Felix Hernandez once again takes the ball as the ace. A true ace that I think the Mariners should and hopefully will sign long term and keep him in the Pacific NW for years to come. This team is due for another losing season and I think they should finish around the same as the Athletics.
72-90
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